Alright, here we go again, diving into the numbers for Week 13. The fantasy playoffs are breathing down our necks, so getting these projections right feels extra important this week. Can’t just wing it anymore, gotta put in the work.
My Grind for Week 13 Projections
First thing I did, like always, was pull up the schedule for Week 13. Who’s playing who? That’s the baseline. Some matchups just scream “start ’em,” others make you nervous right off the bat. I made a quick mental note of the games I thought would be high-scoring and the ones likely to be defensive slugfests.
Then, the injury reports. Man, this is always a headache, especially late in the season. I spent a good chunk of time scrolling through practice reports – DNP (Did Not Practice), LP (Limited Participant), FP (Full Participant). You gotta pay attention to the trends. If a guy didn’t practice all week, I’m probably fading him hard, even if he’s listed as questionable. If he started limited and got in a full practice Friday, that’s a good sign. It’s tedious clicking through team updates and news feeds, but skipping this step is asking for trouble.
Checking Recent Performance
Next up, I looked at how players have actually been doing the last few weeks. Season-long stats can be misleading. A guy might have had a monster start to the year but has been quiet lately. I looked at targets, touches, snap counts, red zone usage – stuff like that from the past 3-4 games. This gives a much better picture of their current role and effectiveness than just looking at their total points.
- Who’s getting the volume?
- Who’s making plays with their touches?
- Are there any trends, like a backup RB getting more work?
I also considered how teams generally play. You know, are they a run-first team? Do they air it out? And how does that change depending on the opponent? Like, a pass-heavy team might run more if they get a big lead, or if they’re facing a really weak run defense. I tried to picture the game script a bit.
Putting Numbers to Names
Okay, then came the actual projecting part. This is where it gets fuzzy, mixing stats with gut feelings. I started by estimating touches or targets for the skill guys. For RBs, I thought about carries and maybe a few catches. For WRs and TEs, it was all about targets – how many looks do I realistically think they’ll get?
From there, I tried to guess efficiency. Yards per carry, yards per catch. This depends heavily on the player’s talent and, crucially, that matchup I noted earlier. Touchdowns are the hardest part – kinda random, right? But you look at red zone usage and the opponent’s tendency to give up TDs to certain positions. It’s an educated guess, really.
For QBs, I basically built their projection off the receivers. Estimated pass attempts, completion percentage, average yards per throw. Added in some potential rushing yards for the mobile guys. Then tried to figure out a reasonable TD-to-INT ratio based on their recent play and the defense they’re facing.
Defenses and Kickers came last. Defenses: I looked at the opposing QB – are they prone to sacks or picks? Kickers: mostly about opportunity, guessing if the team will move the ball but maybe stall in the red zone.
Final Touches and Gut Checks
Once I had a first pass of numbers down, I did a sanity check. Do the total projected points for players on the same team seem realistic? Like, I can’t project 3 receiving TDs for one team if I only projected the QB for 1 passing TD. Little things like that. I shuffled numbers around until it felt somewhat logical.
And yeah, sometimes the numbers look good, but my gut just screams “no way.” Maybe I saw something watching a game last week that the stats don’t capture. I definitely tweak things based on that intuition. It’s not scientific, but hey, it’s fantasy football.
I keep tweaking right up until Sunday morning, checking for last-minute injury news or weather changes (heavy wind or snow can kill a passing game projection). It’s a continuous process, really. Now I’ve got my list, sorted by position, ready to help me (hopefully) make the right start/sit calls. Fingers crossed it pans out!
